SCU Torreense vs. Sparta Prague: O/U 3.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 78¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$91.6

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 77.5¢

+26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,603

Combined PnL+$435.11

Over3 traders

Total Value$729.91

Total Shares3,011

Combined PnL-$343.51

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 64.3¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$312.58	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
WI Winning2...CTR	Overavg 35.8¢	$914.22	$574.91	-$339.31	— 0-12 (12)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 53.4¢	$428.46	$532.96	+$104.5	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 64.4¢	$109.53	$113.9	+$4.37	52% 187-174 (361)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 35.2¢	$117.75	$113.63	-$4.12	33% 553-1135 (1688)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 48¢	$47.78	$66.69	+$18.91	36% 209-369 (578)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 34.1¢	$41.45	$41.37	-$0.08	33% 558-1111 (1669)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 65.2¢	$28.96	$23.55	-$5.41	41% 552-797 (1349)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.51	$2.66	+$0.15	49% 1241-1273 (2514)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,775.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$312.58

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

Winning2...CTR

Over

Invested

$914.22

Value

$574.91

PnL

-$339.31

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$428.46

Value

$532.96

PnL

+$104.5

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$109.53

Value

$113.9

PnL

+$4.37

Record

52%

187-174 (361)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$117.75

Value

$113.63

PnL

-$4.12

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$47.78

Value

$66.69

PnL

+$18.91

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.45

Value

$41.37

PnL

-$0.08

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$28.96

Value

$23.55

PnL

-$5.41

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.