SCU Torreense vs. Sparta Prague: O/U 2.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$521.09

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 99.6¢

+96% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,028

Combined PnL+$491.98

Under4 traders

Total Value$142.22

Total Shares314

Combined PnL+$29.11

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Overavg 50.6¢	$505.78	$995	+$489.22	4% 2-55 (57)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 54.7¢	$720	$730.62	+$10.62	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.9¢	$346.6	$409.56	+$62.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.7¢	$373.4	$321.06	-$52.34
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 55.3¢	$857.69	$550.44	-$75.71	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$234.28	$317.59	+$81.3
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.3¢	$389.85	$232.84	-$157.01
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 34.9¢	$61.72	$75.96	+$14.24	33% 553-1135 (1688)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$23.3	$31.51	+$8.21	32% 538-1128 (1666)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$19.37	$19.12	-$0.24	36% 209-369 (578)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$8.72	$15.62	+$6.9	33% 558-1111 (1669)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 57¢	$13.01	$15.29	+$2.28	41% 552-797 (1349)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.98	+$0.47	99% 244-3 (247)

TheComboConnoisseur

Over

Invested

$505.78

Value

$995

PnL

+$489.22

Record

2-55 (57)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$720

Value

$730.62

PnL

+$10.62

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Under$346.644.9¢+$62.96

Over$373.454.7¢-$52.34

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$857.69

Value

$550.44

PnL

-$75.71

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

Both legs:

Under$234.2849.4¢+$81.3

Over$389.8555.3¢-$157.01

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61.72

Value

$75.96

PnL

+$14.24

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.3

Value

$31.51

PnL

+$8.21

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.37

Value

$19.12

PnL

-$0.24

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.72

Value

$15.62

PnL

+$6.9

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$13.01

Value

$15.29

PnL

+$2.28

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.47

Record

99%

244-3 (247)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.