Eintracht Frankfurt vs. PSV Eindhoven: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 57¢ · $351 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$351.39
-$0
57¢ → 57¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 57¢ | $164.27 | $164.27 | -$0 | 51% 1816-1775 (3591) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 57¢ | $135.21 | $135.21 | +$0 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $36.76 | $36.76 | -$0 | 37% 338-564 (902) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $13 | $13 | +$0 | 30% 371-860 (1231) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.15 | +$0 | 30% 367-860 (1227) |
Invested
$164.27
Value
$164.27
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1816-1775 (3591)
Invested
$135.21
Value
$135.21
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$36.76
Value
$36.76
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
338-564 (902)
Invested
$13
Value
$13
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
371-860 (1231)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
367-860 (1227)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.