Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold PSV Eindhoven, while the market favors Eintracht Frankfurt (54%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-3.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold PSV Eindhoven (50%) · PSV Eindhoven at 46¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
PSV Eindhoven
4
PSV Eindhoven 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$80.18
79.6¢ → 46¢
-42% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPSV Eindhoven at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Eintracht Frankfurt 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on PSV Eindhoven. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | PSV Eindhovenavg 80.2¢ | $857.03 | $765.38 | -$91.64 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | PSV Eindhovenavg 60.8¢ | $551.98 | $655.68 | +$103.7 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
| └ PSV Eindhoven leg | PSV Eindhovenavg 60.8¢ | $377.31 | $508.93 | +$131.62 | |
| └ Eintracht Frankfurt leg | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 21.4¢ | $174.68 | $146.76 | -$27.92 | |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | PSV Eindhovenavg 63¢ | $21.71 | $27.22 | +$5.5 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 12¢ | $5.39 | $12.13 | +$6.74 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $0.88 | -$0.77 | 31% 390-871 (1261) |
Invested
$857.03
Value
$765.38
PnL
-$91.64
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$551.98
Value
$655.68
PnL
+$103.7
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.71
Value
$27.22
PnL
+$5.5
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$12.13
PnL
+$6.74
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$0.77
Record
31%
390-871 (1261)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.