Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold PSV Eindhoven (67%) · PSV Eindhoven at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
PSV Eindhoven
6
PSV Eindhoven 67%
$2.1K
$86.11
59.5¢ → 62¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralPSV Eindhoven at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on PSV Eindhoven. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 40.4¢ | $887.46 | $1.1K | +$221.15 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
GO GoalLineGhost | PSV Eindhovenavg 75.4¢ | $652.89 | $433.45 | -$219.43 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
MA MadridTime | PSV Eindhovenavg 47¢ | $224.66 | $282.02 | +$57.36 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
LI Limousin | PSV Eindhovenavg 46¢ | $219.88 | $243.78 | +$23.9 | 30% 378-880 (1258) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | PSV Eindhovenavg 47¢ | $31.82 | $33.17 | +$1.35 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 24¢ | $1.58 | $3.36 | +$1.78 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
Invested
$887.46
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$221.15
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$652.89
Value
$433.45
PnL
-$219.43
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$224.66
Value
$282.02
PnL
+$57.36
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
Invested
$219.88
Value
$243.78
PnL
+$23.9
Record
30%
378-880 (1258)
Invested
$31.82
Value
$33.17
PnL
+$1.35
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$1.58
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$1.78
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.