Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Eintracht Frankfurt (50%) · Eintracht Frankfurt at 53¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
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Neutral
Eintracht Frankfurt
6
Eintracht Frankfurt 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$149.81
59.7¢ → 53¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralEintracht Frankfurt at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 60.2¢ | $748.38 | $897.35 | +$148.97 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | PSV Eindhovenavg 45.9¢ | $592.66 | $434.3 | -$158.37 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
| └ Eintracht Frankfurt leg | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 74¢ | $232.99 | $234.56 | +$1.57 | |
| └ PSV Eindhoven leg | PSV Eindhovenavg 45.9¢ | $359.68 | $199.74 | -$159.94 | |
LI Limousin<$100 | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 49¢ | $18.76 | $19.91 | +$1.15 | 30% 375-876 (1251) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | PSV Eindhovenavg 44¢ | $8.8 | $9 | +$0.2 | 31% 381-851 (1232) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | PSV Eindhovenavg 56¢ | $8.48 | $6.81 | -$1.67 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | PSV Eindhovenavg 40¢ | $6 | $6.75 | +$0.75 | 30% 378-870 (1248) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Eintracht Frankfurtavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.6 | +$0.4 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
Invested
$748.38
Value
$897.35
PnL
+$148.97
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Invested
$592.66
Value
$434.3
PnL
-$158.37
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Both legs:
Invested
$18.76
Value
$19.91
PnL
+$1.15
Record
30%
375-876 (1251)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$9
PnL
+$0.2
Record
31%
381-851 (1232)
Invested
$8.48
Value
$6.81
PnL
-$1.67
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$6
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
30%
378-870 (1248)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.4
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.