Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-11-11?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 71¢ · $756 held · ends Nov 11

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$756.31

Combined PnL

$1.27

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 70.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$577.53

Total Shares763

Combined PnL+$15.86

No3 traders

Total Value$178.77

Total Shares539

Combined PnL-$14.59

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 67.4¢	$526.83	$542.74	+$15.9	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 32.4¢	$186.57	$172.16	-$14.41	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 68.8¢	$34.85	$34.8	-$0.05	37% 340-570 (910)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$3.59	$3.71	+$0.12	38% 136-221 (357)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$3.2	$2.9	-$0.3	52% 445-417 (862)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$526.83

Value

$542.74

PnL

+$15.9

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$186.57

Value

$172.16

PnL

-$14.41

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.85

Value

$34.8

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$0.12

Record

38%

136-221 (357)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.