Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2026-11-11?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 13¢ · $476 held · ends Nov 11

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$476.16

Combined PnL

$8.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$74.93

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$1.39

Yes5 traders

Total Value$47.25

Total Shares373

Combined PnL+$7.44

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$180.25	$182.96	+$2.71	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
└ No leg	Noavg 86.6¢	$135.38	$136.84	+$1.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.2¢	$44.87	$46.12	+$1.25
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 86¢	$164	$171.02	+$7.02	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
└ No leg	Noavg 86¢	$129	$131.25	+$2.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11¢	$35	$39.77	+$4.77
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$40.34	$40.87	+$0.53	37% 340-570 (910)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 86¢	$33.2	$34.06	+$0.86	38% 136-221 (357)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$18	$22.5	+$4.5	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$13.75	$13.75	+$0	30% 377-862 (1239)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$2.6	$5	+$2.4	52% 445-417 (862)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$2.8	$3.34	+$0.54	60% 642-427 (1069)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$2.66	$2.66	+$0	31% 376-842 (1218)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$180.25

Value

$182.96

PnL

+$2.71

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

Both legs:

No$135.3886.6¢+$1.46

Yes$44.8712.2¢+$1.25

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$164

Value

$171.02

PnL

+$7.02

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

Both legs:

No$12986¢+$2.25

Yes$3511¢+$4.77

sentrio<$100

Invested

$40.34

Value

$40.87

PnL

+$0.53

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$33.2

Value

$34.06

PnL

+$0.86

Record

38%

136-221 (357)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.75

Value

$13.75

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

377-862 (1239)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.6

Value

PnL

+$2.4

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$3.34

PnL

+$0.54

Record

60%

642-427 (1069)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

376-842 (1218)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.