Eintracht Frankfurt leading at halftime?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$217.71

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 100¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$975.26

Total Shares976

Combined PnL+$238.9

No4 traders

Total Value$65.47

Total Shares1,287

Combined PnL-$456.61

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 68¢	$653.49	$847.94	+$197.68	51% 1851-1805 (3656)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 62.8¢	$56.04	$82.62	+$26.58	38% 137-223 (360)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 32¢	$238.47	$60.56	-$177.91	45% 267-322 (589)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$12.86	$24.72	+$11.85	38% 351-584 (935)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$17.2	$19.99	+$2.79	28% 161-409 (570)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$60.89	$4.61	-$56.28	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 38.4¢	$192.96	$0.25	-$192.71	31% 390-871 (1261)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$29.75	$0.04	-$29.71	31% 384-854 (1238)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$653.49

Value

$847.94

PnL

+$197.68

Record

51%

1851-1805 (3656)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.04

Value

$82.62

PnL

+$26.58

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$238.47

Value

$60.56

PnL

-$177.91

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.86

Value

$24.72

PnL

+$11.85

Record

38%

351-584 (935)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.2

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$2.79

Record

28%

161-409 (570)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$60.89

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$56.28

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$192.96

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$192.71

Record

31%

390-871 (1261)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$29.75

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$29.71

Record

31%

384-854 (1238)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.