Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. PSV Eindhoven: Both Teams to Score
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 0.5¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 20%
2 arb excluded
$4.3K
$-1.2K
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $3.3K | $3.1K | -$172.94 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$211.37 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $1.3K | $945.9 | -$384.31 | |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$71.67 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.5¢ | $677.12 | $824.75 | +$147.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $357.42 | $281.46 | -$75.96 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 20.1¢ | $9.85 | $9.28 | -$0.56 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Noavg 80.3¢ | $1.2K | $7.63 | $-1.2K | 28% 161-409 (570) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $6.56 | $6 | -$0.57 | 38% 137-223 (360) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $4.98 | +$3.57 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 26.6¢ | $6.49 | $4.64 | -$1.85 | 31% 390-871 (1261) |
Invested
$3,312.51
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$172.94
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,034.54
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$71.67
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.85
Value
$9.28
PnL
-$0.56
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
Invested
$1,225.22
Value
$7.63
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
28%
161-409 (570)
Invested
$6.56
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.57
Record
38%
137-223 (360)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$3.57
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
Invested
$6.49
Value
$4.64
PnL
-$1.85
Record
31%
390-871 (1261)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.