Malmo FF vs. Ajax Amsterdam: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 60¢ · $773 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$772.71
$1.17
57.7¢ → 59.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 57.7¢ | $427.26 | $439 | +$11.74 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $195.52 | $188.54 | -$6.98 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $85.66 | $80.68 | -$4.98 | 38% 136-221 (357) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $60.9 | $62.47 | +$1.57 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.03 | -$0.17 | 37% 339-567 (906) |
Invested
$427.26
Value
$439
PnL
+$11.74
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$195.52
Value
$188.54
PnL
-$6.98
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$85.66
Value
$80.68
PnL
-$4.98
Record
38%
136-221 (357)
Invested
$60.9
Value
$62.47
PnL
+$1.57
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.17
Record
37%
339-567 (906)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.