Will Malmo FF win on 2026-11-11?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 59¢ · $194 held · ends Nov 11

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$194.31

Combined PnL

$0.82

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$98.36

Total Shares237

Combined PnL+$0.9

No4 traders

Total Value$95.95

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$0.08

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.6¢	$68.66	$68.48	-$0.18	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 59¢	$56.32	$55.84	-$0.48	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$28.8	$29.88	+$1.08	2% 1-53 (54)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$23.1	$22.92	-$0.18	37% 339-567 (906)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 57¢	$10.91	$11.29	+$0.38	31% 373-839 (1212)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.9	+$0.2	30% 373-861 (1234)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.66

Value

$68.48

PnL

-$0.18

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$56.32

Value

$55.84

PnL

-$0.48

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

TheComboConnoisseurCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.8

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$1.08

Record

1-53 (54)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$23.1

Value

$22.92

PnL

-$0.18

Record

37%

339-567 (906)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$10.91

Value

$11.29

PnL

+$0.38

Record

31%

373-839 (1212)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

30%

373-861 (1234)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.