Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Malmo FF vs. Ajax Amsterdam end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 8.5¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.8K
$225.92
41¢ → 8.5¢
-79% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 49.5¢ | $860.17 | $1.1K | +$262.72 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $307 | $532.73 | +$225.74 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 59¢ | $371.84 | $75.63 | -$296.21 | 30% 380-877 (1257) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.5¢ | $43.66 | $74.59 | +$30.93 | 31% 390-873 (1263) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $26.65 | $29.45 | +$2.8 | 38% 137-223 (360) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $3.55 | -$0.05 | 30% 379-881 (1260) |
Invested
$860.17
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$262.72
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$307
Value
$532.73
PnL
+$225.74
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$371.84
Value
$75.63
PnL
-$296.21
Record
30%
380-877 (1257)
Invested
$43.66
Value
$74.59
PnL
+$30.93
Record
31%
390-873 (1263)
Invested
$26.65
Value
$29.45
PnL
+$2.8
Record
38%
137-223 (360)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.55
PnL
-$0.05
Record
30%
379-881 (1260)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.