Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2026-11-11?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $313 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$312.87
$2.89
65.6¢ → 66.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 65.2¢ | $107.96 | $110.11 | +$2.15 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $58.04 | $58.03 | -$0.01 | 30% 373-861 (1234) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $53.3 | $53.25 | -$0.05 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $37.42 | $37.71 | +$0.29 | 38% 136-221 (357) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 65.5¢ | $24.16 | $24.54 | +$0.38 | 37% 339-567 (906) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $16.51 | $16.64 | +$0.13 | 30% 368-861 (1229) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $12.6 | $12.6 | +$0 | 31% 373-839 (1212) |
Invested
$107.96
Value
$110.11
PnL
+$2.15
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Invested
$58.04
Value
$58.03
PnL
-$0.01
Record
30%
373-861 (1234)
Invested
$53.3
Value
$53.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$37.42
Value
$37.71
PnL
+$0.29
Record
38%
136-221 (357)
Invested
$24.16
Value
$24.54
PnL
+$0.38
Record
37%
339-567 (906)
Invested
$16.51
Value
$16.64
PnL
+$0.13
Record
30%
368-861 (1229)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
373-839 (1212)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.