Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Hammarby IF vs. Spartak Myjava: O/U 4.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 42¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 71%
$120.39
-$2.01
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 42.3¢ | $69.11 | $67.81 | -$1.29 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $35.16 | $34.86 | -$0.3 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $6.67 | $6.61 | -$0.06 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $4.15 | $3.86 | -$0.29 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $2.53 | $2.62 | +$0.09 | 30% 371-861 (1232) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $2.59 | $2.62 | +$0.03 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2 | -$0.2 | 30% 376-862 (1238) |
Invested
$69.11
Value
$67.81
PnL
-$1.29
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
Invested
$35.16
Value
$34.86
PnL
-$0.3
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$6.67
Value
$6.61
PnL
-$0.06
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$3.86
PnL
-$0.29
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$2.53
Value
$2.62
PnL
+$0.09
Record
30%
371-861 (1232)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$2.62
PnL
+$0.03
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
30%
376-862 (1238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.