Spread: Hammarby IF (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Hammarby IF (50%) · Hammarby IF at 80¢ · $472 held · ends Nov 11

Hammarby IF80¢Spartak Myjava20¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hammarby IF

Consensus Traders

Hammarby IF 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$472.03

Combined PnL

$6.1

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 79.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralHammarby IF at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hammarby IF

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hammarby IF80%

Spartak Myjava21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hammarby IF2 traders

Total Value$250.15

Total Shares292

Combined PnL+$7.68

Spartak Myjava2 traders

Total Value$21.82

Total Shares105

Combined PnL-$1.58

Hammarby IF — 50%Spartak Myjava — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hammarby IF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpartak Myjava 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hammarby IF 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Hammarby IFavg 76.6¢	$235.86	$243.66	+$7.79	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Hammarby IFavg 79¢	$206.11	$200.07	-$6.04	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
└ Hammarby IF leg	Hammarby IFavg 79¢	$144.82	$145.68	+$0.86
└ Spartak Myjava leg	Spartak Myjavaavg 23.1¢	$61.29	$54.38	-$6.9
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Spartak Myjavaavg 21¢	$13.27	$12.95	-$0.32	30% 378-869 (1247)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Spartak Myjavaavg 24¢	$10.13	$8.86	-$1.27	31% 385-869 (1254)
SE sentrio<$100	Hammarby IFavg 79¢	$6.6	$6.49	-$0.11	37% 346-578 (924)

GoalLineGhost

Hammarby IF

Invested

$235.86

Value

$243.66

PnL

+$7.79

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Hammarby IF

Invested

$206.11

Value

$200.07

PnL

-$6.04

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

Both legs:

Hammarby IF$144.8279¢+$0.86

Spartak Myjava$61.2923.1¢-$6.9

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Spartak Myjava

Invested

$13.27

Value

$12.95

PnL

-$0.32

Record

30%

378-869 (1247)

VenusianCTR<$100

Spartak Myjava

Invested

$10.13

Value

$8.86

PnL

-$1.27

Record

31%

385-869 (1254)

sentrio<$100

Hammarby IF

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.49

PnL

-$0.11

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

Research grade

NeutralHammarby IF at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hammarby IF

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hammarby IF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpartak Myjava 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hammarby IF 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hammarby IF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.