Will Spartak Myjava win on 2026-11-11?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$2.91

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 97.7¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,875

Combined PnL-$2.81

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.87

Total Shares82

Combined PnL-$0.1

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 98¢	$848.92	$847.19	-$1.73	30% 372-861 (1233)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.2¢	$369.63	$371.83	+$2.2	45% 262-316 (578)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 97.2¢	$355.47	$347.75	-$5.78	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97¢	$296.81	$299.32	+$2.51	31% 376-842 (1218)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.98	$1.87	-$0.1	37% 340-570 (910)

LightParadox

Invested

$848.92

Value

$847.19

PnL

-$1.73

Record

30%

372-861 (1233)

SnakeBall

Invested

$369.63

Value

$371.83

PnL

+$2.2

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

Flaznorp

Invested

$355.47

Value

$347.75

PnL

-$5.78

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

MadridTime

Invested

$296.81

Value

$299.32

PnL

+$2.51

Record

31%

376-842 (1218)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.