Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-11-11?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 91¢ · $242 held · ends Nov 11

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$241.76

Combined PnL

$2.8

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$241.76

Total Shares258

Combined PnL+$2.8

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 88.4¢	$135.37	$125.42	+$3.83	51% 1751-1707 (3458)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 91.7¢	$80.13	$78.67	-$1.45	46% 252-296 (548)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$22.77	$22.9	+$0.13	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$13.23	$13.53	+$0.3	29% 349-838 (1187)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$1.24	$1.24	+$0	30% 354-813 (1167)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$135.37

Value

$125.42

PnL

+$3.83

Record

51%

1751-1707 (3458)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.13

Value

$78.67

PnL

-$1.45

Record

46%

252-296 (548)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.77

Value

$22.9

PnL

+$0.13

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.23

Value

$13.53

PnL

+$0.3

Record

29%

349-838 (1187)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

354-813 (1167)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.