Hammarby IF leading at halftime?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $68 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$67.65
-$47.04
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $42.91 | $56.52 | +$13.62 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $3.39 | $5.37 | +$1.98 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 25.5¢ | $2.55 | $3.8 | +$1.25 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $1.35 | $1.9 | +$0.55 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 62.6¢ | $61.34 | $0.05 | -$61.29 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $0 | -$3.15 | 30% 380-875 (1255) |
Invested
$42.91
Value
$56.52
PnL
+$13.62
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$3.39
Value
$5.37
PnL
+$1.98
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$1.25
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.55
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
Invested
$61.34
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$61.29
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$0
PnL
-$3.15
Record
30%
380-875 (1255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.