Will Hammarby IF vs. Spartak Myjava end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.3K
-$53.02
94¢ → 80¢
-15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 95¢ | $762.85 | $642.4 | -$120.45 | 30% 380-875 (1255) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92.6¢ | $516.38 | $494.87 | -$21.51 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $31.43 | $115.7 | +$84.27 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $3.29 | $5.27 | +$1.98 | 31% 390-871 (1261) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1 | $3.7 | +$2.7 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
Invested
$762.85
Value
$642.4
PnL
-$120.45
Record
30%
380-875 (1255)
Invested
$516.38
Value
$494.87
PnL
-$21.51
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$31.43
Value
$115.7
PnL
+$84.27
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$5.27
PnL
+$1.98
Record
31%
390-871 (1261)
Invested
$1
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$2.7
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.