Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-11-10?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Yes84¢No16¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$54.05

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 84¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$899.78

Total Shares972

Combined PnL-$55.52

No3 traders

Total Value$7.83

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$1.47

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 91.9¢	$697.04	$729.52	+$32.48	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 91.9¢	$525.69	$477.68	-$48.01
└ No leg	Noavg 11.2¢	$171.35	$251.84	+$80.49
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 91.7¢	$570.44	$527	-$43.44	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 87.6¢	$142.08	$140.94	-$1.14	44% 79-102 (181)
SE sentrio	Yesavg 92.9¢	$138.43	$132.05	-$6.38	31% 170-384 (554)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 90.1¢	$67.69	$63.13	-$4.56	25% 216-657 (873)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$36.66	$36.66	-$0	25% 217-656 (873)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$4.09	$3.85	-$0.24	25% 218-645 (863)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$1.96	$3.36	+$1.4	25% 218-637 (855)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$0.31	$0.62	+$0.31	36% 254-444 (698)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$697.04

Value

$729.52

PnL

+$32.48

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

Both legs:

Yes$525.6991.9¢-$48.01

No$171.3511.2¢+$80.49

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$570.44

Value

$527

PnL

-$43.44

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$142.08

Value

$140.94

PnL

-$1.14

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$138.43

Value

$132.05

PnL

-$6.38

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.69

Value

$63.13

PnL

-$4.56

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.66

Value

$36.66

PnL

-$0

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$4.09

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.24

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$1.4

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.31

Record

36%

254-444 (698)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.