Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 89%
$1.5K
$224.85
46.2¢ → 82.5¢
+78% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 41.2¢ | $575.31 | $791.59 | +$216.28 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 71.6¢ | $412.95 | $308.83 | -$104.12 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 39.5¢ | $158 | $248 | +$90 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $37.53 | $54.11 | +$16.58 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $17.89 | $26.41 | +$8.52 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 65.8¢ | $30.29 | $24.56 | -$5.73 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $5.23 | $6.97 | +$1.74 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.46 | $3.39 | +$0.93 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $1.75 | $2.4 | +$0.65 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
Invested
$575.31
Value
$791.59
PnL
+$216.28
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$412.95
Value
$308.83
PnL
-$104.12
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
VeryLucky888Invested
$158
Value
$248
PnL
+$90
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$37.53
Value
$54.11
PnL
+$16.58
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$17.89
Value
$26.41
PnL
+$8.52
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$30.29
Value
$24.56
PnL
-$5.73
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$5.23
Value
$6.97
PnL
+$1.74
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$3.39
PnL
+$0.93
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.65
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.