Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Feyenoord Rotterdam (29%) · Feyenoord Rotterdam at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

VfL Wolfsburg6¢Feyenoord Rotterdam94¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Feyenoord Rotterdam

Consensus Traders

Feyenoord Rotterdam 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$113.43

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 94¢

+54% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFeyenoord Rotterdam at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Feyenoord Rotterdam

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

VfL Wolfsburg6%

Feyenoord Rotterdam94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Feyenoord Rotterdam2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,556

Combined PnL+$66.18

VfL Wolfsburg5 traders

Total Value$463.57

Total Shares1,296

Combined PnL-$179.6

Feyenoord Rotterdam — 29%VfL Wolfsburg — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Feyenoord Rotterdamavg 61.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$65.13	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	VfL Wolfsburgavg 33.9¢	$280.95	$280.26	-$0.69	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
MA MadridTimeCTR	VfL Wolfsburgavg 46.5¢	$282.68	$115.41	-$167.27	25% 218-637 (855)
VE VenusianARB<$100	VfL Wolfsburgavg 48¢	$84.84	$90.8	+$5.96	25% 216-657 (873)
└ VfL Wolfsburg leg	VfL Wolfsburgavg 48¢	$47.77	$56.73	+$8.96
└ Feyenoord Rotterdam leg	Feyenoord Rotterdamavg 46.8¢	$37.07	$34.07	-$3
SE sentrioCTR<$100	VfL Wolfsburgavg 68.4¢	$35.79	$36.46	+$0.67	31% 170-384 (554)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	VfL Wolfsburgavg 13¢	$24.96	$24	-$0.96	20% 29-116 (145)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	VfL Wolfsburgavg 48¢	$18.8	$7.44	-$11.36	25% 217-656 (873)
LI LightParadox<$100	Feyenoord Rotterdamavg 32¢	$1.6	$2.65	+$1.05	25% 218-645 (863)

Flaznorp

Feyenoord Rotterdam

Invested

$1,084.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$65.13

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

GoalLineGhostCTR

VfL Wolfsburg

Invested

$280.95

Value

$280.26

PnL

-$0.69

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

MadridTimeCTR

VfL Wolfsburg

Invested

$282.68

Value

$115.41

PnL

-$167.27

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

VenusianARB<$100

VfL Wolfsburg

Invested

$84.84

Value

$90.8

PnL

+$5.96

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

Both legs:

VfL Wolfsburg$47.7748¢+$8.96

Feyenoord Rotterdam$37.0746.8¢-$3

sentrioCTR<$100

VfL Wolfsburg

Invested

$35.79

Value

$36.46

PnL

+$0.67

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

Rocky31CTR<$100

VfL Wolfsburg

Invested

$24.96

Value

$24

PnL

-$0.96

Record

20%

29-116 (145)

LimousinCTR<$100

VfL Wolfsburg

Invested

$18.8

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$11.36

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LightParadox<$100

Feyenoord Rotterdam

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$1.05

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

Research grade

NeutralFeyenoord Rotterdam at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Feyenoord Rotterdam

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Feyenoord Rotterdam wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.