Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 91¢ · $402 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$402
-$8.12
93.9¢ → 90.8¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93.8¢ | $357.54 | $348.34 | -$9.2 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $44.85 | $41.73 | -$3.12 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $5.67 | $7.87 | +$2.2 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $1.95 | $3.83 | +$1.88 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.12 | $0.24 | +$0.12 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
Invested
$357.54
Value
$348.34
PnL
-$9.2
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$44.85
Value
$41.73
PnL
-$3.12
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$7.87
PnL
+$2.2
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$3.83
PnL
+$1.88
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.24
PnL
+$0.12
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.