Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 28¢ · $384 held · ended Nov 10

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$384.08

Combined PnL

-$47.25

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$35.55

Total Shares62

Combined PnL-$4.15

Yes3 traders

Total Value$36.01

Total Shares186

Combined PnL-$43.1

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$288.21	$312.51	+$24.31	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.5¢	$218.4	$222.9	+$4.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.8¢	$69.8	$89.61	+$19.81
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 61.3¢	$39.71	$35.55	-$4.15	31% 170-384 (554)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$62.68	$26.24	-$36.44	25% 216-657 (873)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.3¢	$11.73	$5.37	-$6.36	25% 218-637 (855)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.4	-$0.3	25% 218-645 (863)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$288.21

Value

$312.51

PnL

+$24.31

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

Both legs:

No$218.470.5¢+$4.5

Yes$69.821.8¢+$19.81

sentrio<$100

Invested

$39.71

Value

$35.55

PnL

-$4.15

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.68

Value

$26.24

PnL

-$36.44

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.73

Value

$5.37

PnL

-$6.36

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.3

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.