Fenerbahce Istanbul vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian: O/U 3.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 67¢ · $587 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
1 arb excluded
$587.45
-$5.07
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-60 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 69.7¢ | $388.11 | $368.41 | -$19.69 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $88.88 | $99.11 | +$10.23 | 31% 380-865 (1245) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $58.64 | $59.96 | +$1.32 | 51% 1833-1787 (3620) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 33¢ | $30.6 | $31.49 | +$0.89 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 65¢ | $28.04 | $28.47 | +$0.43 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $45.86 | $51.21 | +$5.35 | 30% 373-864 (1237) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $7.04 | $6.4 | -$0.64 | 38% 137-221 (358) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $2.68 | $2.36 | -$0.31 | 37% 341-573 (914) |
Invested
$388.11
Value
$368.41
PnL
-$19.69
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$88.88
Value
$99.11
PnL
+$10.23
Record
31%
380-865 (1245)
Invested
$58.64
Value
$59.96
PnL
+$1.32
Record
51%
1833-1787 (3620)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.86
Value
$51.21
PnL
+$5.35
Record
30%
373-864 (1237)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$6.4
PnL
-$0.64
Record
38%
137-221 (358)
Invested
$2.68
Value
$2.36
PnL
-$0.31
Record
37%
341-573 (914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.