Fenerbahce Istanbul vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian: O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 77¢ · $234 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$234.08
$0.09
78¢ → 77¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 78¢ | $146.28 | $146.37 | +$0.09 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $50.29 | $50.29 | +$0 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $32.43 | $32.43 | -$0 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.9 | +$0 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $1.1 | $1.1 | -$0 | 30% 376-862 (1238) |
Invested
$146.28
Value
$146.37
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
Invested
$50.29
Value
$50.29
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$32.43
Value
$32.43
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.9
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
376-862 (1238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.