Will Real Sociedad San Sebastian win on 2026-11-11?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 62¢ · $388 held · ends Nov 11

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$388

Combined PnL

$11.3

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 61.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$174.55

Total Shares332

Combined PnL+$45.08

Yes3 traders

Total Value$213.24

Total Shares357

Combined PnL-$33.79

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 39¢	$127.72	$171.93	+$44.21	30% 369-862 (1231)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 61.1¢	$158.87	$144.7	-$14.17	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$83.87	$65.31	-$18.56	38% 136-221 (357)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$4.29	$3.23	-$1.06	31% 373-839 (1212)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.75	$2.62	+$0.87	37% 339-567 (906)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$127.72

Value

$171.93

PnL

+$44.21

Record

30%

369-862 (1231)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$158.87

Value

$144.7

PnL

-$14.17

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.87

Value

$65.31

PnL

-$18.56

Record

38%

136-221 (357)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.29

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$1.06

Record

31%

373-839 (1212)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0.87

Record

37%

339-567 (906)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.