Fenerbahce Istanbul vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 61¢ · $818 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$818.2
$8.54
60.4¢ → 61¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 59.9¢ | $321.88 | $327.56 | +$5.69 | 60% 646-430 (1076) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 61¢ | $253.36 | $254.54 | +$1.18 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 60.3¢ | $199.76 | $201.98 | +$2.22 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $28.12 | $28.12 | +$0 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 65.5¢ | $6.55 | $6 | -$0.55 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
Invested
$321.88
Value
$327.56
PnL
+$5.69
Record
60%
646-430 (1076)
Invested
$253.36
Value
$254.54
PnL
+$1.18
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$199.76
Value
$201.98
PnL
+$2.22
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$28.12
Value
$28.12
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$6.55
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.55
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.