Czarni Sosnowiec vs. SK Brann: O/U 6.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 100¢ · $101K held · ended Nov 11

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$100.9K

Combined PnL

-$42.65

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$100.8K

Total Shares100,858

Combined PnL+$462.65

Over3 traders

Total Value$33.9

Total Shares66,897

Combined PnL-$505.29

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99.5¢	$99.8K	$100.3K	+$445.38	— 7-1 (8)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 62¢	$356.44	$325.09	-$31.36	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 81¢	$121.5	$148.5	+$27	45% 263-319 (582)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 64¢	$39.54	$61.16	+$21.62	37% 346-578 (924)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 0.5¢	$250	$25	-$225	31% 386-869 (1255)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 1.6¢	$277.82	$8.42	-$269.39	51% 1843-1797 (3640)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$11.37	$0.47	-$10.9	38% 137-222 (359)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$99,839.46

Value

$100.3K

PnL

+$445.38

Record

—

7-1 (8)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$356.44

Value

$325.09

PnL

-$31.36

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$121.5

Value

$148.5

PnL

+$27

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$39.54

Value

$61.16

PnL

+$21.62

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$250

Value

$25

PnL

-$225

Record

31%

386-869 (1255)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$277.82

Value

$8.42

PnL

-$269.39

Record

51%

1843-1797 (3640)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.37

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$10.9

Record

38%

137-222 (359)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.