Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Czarni Sosnowiec vs. SK Brann: O/U 5.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $194 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$193.64
$-1.4K
69.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $206.83 | $104.38 | -$102.46 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 17¢ | $179.44 | $73.69 | -$105.75 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 83¢ | $27.39 | $30.68 | +$3.29 | |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 9.5¢ | $29.2 | $36.73 | +$7.53 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $15.06 | $33.12 | +$18.07 | 30% 378-870 (1248) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $93.85 | $18.46 | -$75.38 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 70.5¢ | $1.3K | $0.95 | $-1.3K | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
Invested
$206.83
Value
$104.38
PnL
-$102.46
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.2
Value
$36.73
PnL
+$7.53
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
Invested
$15.06
Value
$33.12
PnL
+$18.07
Record
30%
378-870 (1248)
Invested
$93.85
Value
$18.46
PnL
-$75.38
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$1,340.13
Value
$0.95
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.