Czarni Sosnowiec vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$141.18
45.6¢ → 99.5¢
+118% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 52.1¢ | $702.58 | $960.36 | +$257.79 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.1¢ | $489.36 | $647.49 | +$158.13 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 21.1¢ | $213.22 | $312.87 | +$99.66 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 44.7¢ | $238.12 | $370.72 | +$132.6 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $12.8 | $17.8 | +$5 | 78% 704-201 (905) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $3.63 | $6.87 | +$3.24 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $0.41 | $0.75 | +$0.34 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
Invested
$702.58
Value
$960.36
PnL
+$257.79
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Both legs:
Invested
$238.12
Value
$370.72
PnL
+$132.6
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$17.8
PnL
+$5
Record
78%
704-201 (905)
Invested
$3.63
Value
$6.87
PnL
+$3.24
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$0.75
PnL
+$0.34
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.