Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Czarni Sosnowiec, while the market favors SK Brann (93%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: SK Brann (-3.5)
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Czarni Sosnowiec (14%) · Czarni Sosnowiec at 7.5¢ · $819 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Czarni Sosnowiec
7
Czarni Sosnowiec 14%
$818.85
$125.55
Research grade
AvoidCzarni Sosnowiec at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors SK Brann 93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Czarni Sosnowiec. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | SK Brannavg 44.6¢ | $256.89 | $532.34 | +$275.45 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Czarni Sosnowiecavg 58¢ | $373.3 | $173.7 | -$199.6 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | SK Brannavg 18¢ | $28.76 | $68.11 | +$39.35 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | SK Brannavg 75¢ | $21.6 | $21.02 | -$0.58 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
LI Limousin<$100 | SK Brannavg 49¢ | $9.8 | $14.6 | +$4.8 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | SK Brannavg 37¢ | $1.85 | $4.63 | +$2.78 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
SE sentrio<$100 | SK Brannavg 18¢ | $1.1 | $4.45 | +$3.35 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
Invested
$256.89
Value
$532.34
PnL
+$275.45
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$373.3
Value
$173.7
PnL
-$199.6
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$28.76
Value
$68.11
PnL
+$39.35
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$21.02
PnL
-$0.58
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$14.6
PnL
+$4.8
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$4.63
PnL
+$2.78
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$3.35
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.