Spread: SK Brann (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold SK Brann (33%) · SK Brann at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
SK Brann
6
SK Brann 33%
$1.7K
$129.09
77.6¢ → 99¢
+28% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSK Brann at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on SK Brann. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | SK Brannavg 85.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$1.2 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL Flaznorp | SK Brannavg 60.3¢ | $386.66 | $547.03 | +$160.38 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Czarni Sosnowiecavg 40¢ | $8.38 | $1.68 | -$6.7 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Czarni Sosnowiecavg 46.7¢ | $8.18 | $1.4 | -$6.78 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Czarni Sosnowiecavg 40.3¢ | $17.54 | $0.43 | -$17.11 | 31% 385-869 (1254) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Czarni Sosnowiecavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $0.4 | -$1.9 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
Invested
$1,147.15
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$1.2
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$386.66
Value
$547.03
PnL
+$160.38
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$8.38
Value
$1.68
PnL
-$6.7
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$6.78
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
Invested
$17.54
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$17.11
Record
31%
385-869 (1254)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$1.9
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.