Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Czarni Sosnowiec leading at halftime?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $114 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$113.7
-$14.17
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $55.16 | $60.26 | +$5.1 | 31% 385-869 (1254) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $41.86 | $45.77 | +$3.91 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $5.1 | $4.51 | -$0.58 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $3 | $2 | -$1 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $21.98 | $1.12 | -$20.87 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.77 | $0.05 | -$0.73 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
Invested
$55.16
Value
$60.26
PnL
+$5.1
Record
31%
385-869 (1254)
Invested
$41.86
Value
$45.77
PnL
+$3.91
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$4.51
PnL
-$0.58
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$3
Value
$2
PnL
-$1
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$21.98
Value
$1.12
PnL
-$20.87
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$0.77
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.73
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.