Will Czarni Sosnowiec vs. SK Brann end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $648 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$648.2
-$1.31
98.4¢ → 99.2¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 98.6¢ | $549.68 | $547.91 | -$1.77 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $75.92 | $76.15 | +$0.23 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $8.5 | $9.9 | +$1.4 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $9.34 | $8.62 | -$0.72 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $2.82 | $2.83 | +$0.01 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $3.24 | $2.78 | -$0.46 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
Invested
$549.68
Value
$547.91
PnL
-$1.77
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$75.92
Value
$76.15
PnL
+$0.23
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$1.4
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$9.34
Value
$8.62
PnL
-$0.72
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.83
PnL
+$0.01
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$2.78
PnL
-$0.46
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.