Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Czarni Sosnowiec win on 2026-11-11?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 8.5¢ · $402 held · ends Nov 11

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$401.54

Combined PnL

$61.39

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$107.83

Total Shares637

Combined PnL+$61.16

No1 trader

Total Value$23.94

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$0.23

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 90¢	$158.72	$166.91	+$8.19	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
└ No leg	Noavg 90¢	$110.64	$112.48	+$1.84
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.5¢	$48.09	$54.43	+$6.34
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$101.3	$102.86	+$1.55	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
└ No leg	Noavg 90.4¢	$72.29	$73.19	+$0.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.3¢	$29.01	$29.67	+$0.66
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$8.24	$48.93	+$40.69	38% 136-221 (357)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$34.97	$42.46	+$7.49	45% 262-316 (578)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$23.71	$23.94	+$0.23	37% 340-570 (910)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$3.46	$16.44	+$12.97	31% 376-842 (1218)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$158.72

Value

$166.91

PnL

+$8.19

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

Both legs:

No$110.6490¢+$1.84

Yes$48.097.5¢+$6.34

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$101.3

Value

$102.86

PnL

+$1.55

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

Both legs:

Invested

$8.24

Value

$48.93

PnL

+$40.69

Record

38%

136-221 (357)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.97

Value

$42.46

PnL

+$7.49

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$23.71

Value

$23.94

PnL

+$0.23

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.46

Value

$16.44

PnL

+$12.97

Record

31%

376-842 (1218)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.9%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$907.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

1007.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.