Will SK Brann win on 2026-11-11?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 77¢ · $275 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$274.73
-$2.18
Research grade
NeutralYes at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 76.5¢ | $202.05 | $200.12 | -$1.93 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $45.58 | $46.57 | +$0.99 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $19.89 | $19.22 | -$0.66 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $5.02 | $4.62 | -$0.4 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $4.37 | $4.19 | -$0.18 | 38% 136-221 (357) |
Invested
$202.05
Value
$200.12
PnL
-$1.93
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
Invested
$45.58
Value
$46.57
PnL
+$0.99
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$19.89
Value
$19.22
PnL
-$0.66
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$4.62
PnL
-$0.4
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$4.37
Value
$4.19
PnL
-$0.18
Record
38%
136-221 (357)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.