Broendby IF vs. Rosenborg BK Kvinner: O/U 3.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 25%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$3.34
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 71.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$1.7 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 28.2¢ | $762.58 | $727.41 | -$35.17 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 70.5¢ | $342.92 | $369.87 | +$26.95 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 28.2¢ | $419.67 | $357.55 | -$62.12 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Overavg 29¢ | $127 | $122.62 | -$4.38 | 31% 381-851 (1232) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 28.1¢ | $52.46 | $52.29 | -$0.16 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $0.9 | -$0.5 | 30% 378-870 (1248) |
Invested
$1,802.82
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.7
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$762.58
Value
$727.41
PnL
-$35.17
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Both legs:
Invested
$127
Value
$122.62
PnL
-$4.38
Record
31%
381-851 (1232)
Invested
$52.46
Value
$52.29
PnL
-$0.16
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0.5
Record
30%
378-870 (1248)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.