Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Broendby IF vs. Rosenborg BK Kvinner: O/U 2.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 44¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$17.77
49.1¢ → 44¢
-10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 51.9¢ | $710.02 | $707.84 | -$2.19 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51.9¢ | $490.32 | $411.31 | -$79 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 41.9¢ | $219.71 | $296.53 | +$76.82 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 50.2¢ | $377.97 | $362.77 | -$15.2 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.2¢ | $237.74 | $208.45 | -$29.29 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.9¢ | $140.23 | $154.33 | +$14.09 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 50.2¢ | $251 | $235 | -$16 | 51% 455-429 (884) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $47.63 | $47.09 | -$0.54 | 30% 378-870 (1248) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $4.2 | -$0.7 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $3.73 | $3.2 | -$0.53 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
Invested
$710.02
Value
$707.84
PnL
-$2.19
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Both legs:
Invested
$377.97
Value
$362.77
PnL
-$15.2
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$251
Value
$235
PnL
-$16
Record
51%
455-429 (884)
Invested
$47.63
Value
$47.09
PnL
-$0.54
Record
30%
378-870 (1248)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.7
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$0.53
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.