Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (79%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Broendby IF vs. Rosenborg BK Kvinner: O/U 1.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 22¢ · $308 held · ended Nov 11

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$307.81

Combined PnL

$92.58

Smart Money Entry

12.4¢ → 21.5¢

+73% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$303.65

Total Shares1,512

Combined PnL+$92.59

Over1 trader

Total Value$4.16

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.02

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 13.1¢	$177.87	$231.89	+$54.02	51% 1843-1797 (3640)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$19.78	$49.45	+$29.67	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$4.42	$12.43	+$8.01	45% 263-319 (582)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$6.85	$7.05	+$0.2	31% 381-851 (1232)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 78¢	$4.18	$4.16	-$0.02	37% 346-578 (924)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$2.13	$2.82	+$0.69	30% 378-870 (1248)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$177.87

Value

$231.89

PnL

+$54.02

Record

51%

1843-1797 (3640)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.78

Value

$49.45

PnL

+$29.67

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.42

Value

$12.43

PnL

+$8.01

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.85

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0.2

Record

31%

381-851 (1232)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$4.18

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.69

Record

30%

378-870 (1248)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.