Spread: Broendby IF (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rosenborg BK Kvinner (40%) · Rosenborg BK Kvinner at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Rosenborg BK Kvinner
5
Rosenborg BK Kvinner 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$24.56
78.3¢ → 68.5¢
-13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralRosenborg BK Kvinner at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Rosenborg BK Kvinner. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Rosenborg BK Kvinneravg 78.5¢ | $769.07 | $691.32 | -$77.74 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Rosenborg BK Kvinneravg 78.2¢ | $323.58 | $310.69 | -$11.34 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
| └ Rosenborg BK Kvinner leg | Rosenborg BK Kvinneravg 78.2¢ | $246.74 | $214.5 | -$32.24 | |
| └ Broendby IF leg | Broendby IFavg 25.1¢ | $75.58 | $96.19 | +$20.91 | |
VE VenusianCTR | Broendby IFavg 21.2¢ | $154.48 | $233.61 | +$79.13 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Broendby IFavg 22.2¢ | $57.01 | $82.13 | +$25.12 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Rosenborg BK Kvinneravg 76.6¢ | $70.65 | $63.93 | -$6.72 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Broendby IFavg 22¢ | $10.49 | $15.26 | +$4.77 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
Invested
$769.07
Value
$691.32
PnL
-$77.74
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$323.58
Value
$310.69
PnL
-$11.34
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Both legs:
Invested
$154.48
Value
$233.61
PnL
+$79.13
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$57.01
Value
$82.13
PnL
+$25.12
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$70.65
Value
$63.93
PnL
-$6.72
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$15.26
PnL
+$4.77
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.