Will Rosenborg BK Kvinner win on 2026-11-11?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 68¢ · $199 held · ends Nov 11

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$199.25

Combined PnL

-$10.39

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 68¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$190.13

Total Shares275

Combined PnL-$10.96

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.12

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$0.57

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 73¢	$152.89	$139.23	-$10.21	51% 1779-1735 (3514)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 70¢	$36.42	$36.16	-$0.26	31% 363-824 (1187)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$15.23	$14.74	-$0.49	37% 325-557 (882)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$5.2	$5.6	+$0.4	30% 361-847 (1208)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$3.34	$3.52	+$0.17	56% 1553-1230 (2783)

Flaznorp

Invested

$152.89

Value

$139.23

PnL

-$10.21

Record

51%

1779-1735 (3514)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$36.42

Value

$36.16

PnL

-$0.26

Record

31%

363-824 (1187)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$15.23

Value

$14.74

PnL

-$0.49

Record

37%

325-557 (882)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

30%

361-847 (1208)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.34

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.17

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.