Exact Score: Broendby IF 1 - 1 Rosenborg BK Kvinner?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 89¢ · $224 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$223.61
-$0.85
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 88¢ | $183.75 | $183.75 | +$0 | 30% 373-867 (1240) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $27.81 | $26.18 | -$1.63 | 51% 1833-1786 (3619) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $9 | $9.9 | +$0.9 | 30% 379-865 (1244) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $2 | $2.2 | +$0.2 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.9 | $1.58 | -$0.32 | 37% 341-573 (914) |
Invested
$183.75
Value
$183.75
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
373-867 (1240)
Invested
$27.81
Value
$26.18
PnL
-$1.63
Record
51%
1833-1786 (3619)
Invested
$9
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$0.9
Record
30%
379-865 (1244)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$0.32
Record
37%
341-573 (914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.