Will Broendby IF vs. Rosenborg BK Kvinner end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 77¢ · $373 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$372.79
$6.65
74.2¢ → 77¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 75¢ | $194.8 | $199.99 | +$5.19 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $68.91 | $71.03 | +$2.12 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $64.93 | $64.93 | +$0 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $19.07 | $19.84 | +$0.77 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $12.03 | $10.74 | -$1.29 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $6.4 | $6.25 | -$0.15 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
Invested
$194.8
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$5.19
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$68.91
Value
$71.03
PnL
+$2.12
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$64.93
Value
$64.93
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$19.07
Value
$19.84
PnL
+$0.77
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$12.03
Value
$10.74
PnL
-$1.29
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$6.25
PnL
-$0.15
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.