Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Broendby IF vs. Rosenborg BK Kvinner: Both Teams to Score
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 45¢ · $792 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$792.26
$143.58
36.7¢ → 45¢
+23% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 38.7¢ | $504.15 | $576.94 | +$72.78 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 30.9¢ | $137.72 | $209.27 | +$71.55 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.65 | -$0.1 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $1.85 | -$0.4 | 30% 378-870 (1248) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $1.81 | $1.56 | -$0.25 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
Invested
$504.15
Value
$576.94
PnL
+$72.78
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Invested
$137.72
Value
$209.27
PnL
+$71.55
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.1
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$0.4
Record
30%
378-870 (1248)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.56
PnL
-$0.25
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.