Will Broendby IF win on 2026-11-11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 61¢ · $852 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$852.47
$23.91
58.5¢ → 61¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 58.1¢ | $457.18 | $480.02 | +$22.85 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 59.8¢ | $175.96 | $179.42 | +$3.46 | 30% 368-861 (1229) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $158.63 | $155.16 | -$3.47 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $24.6 | $25.77 | +$1.17 | 31% 373-839 (1212) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $9.45 | $9.2 | -$0.25 | 37% 339-567 (906) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.9 | +$0.15 | 30% 369-862 (1231) |
Invested
$457.18
Value
$480.02
PnL
+$22.85
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Invested
$175.96
Value
$179.42
PnL
+$3.46
Record
30%
368-861 (1229)
Invested
$158.63
Value
$155.16
PnL
-$3.47
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$24.6
Value
$25.77
PnL
+$1.17
Record
31%
373-839 (1212)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$9.2
PnL
-$0.25
Record
37%
339-567 (906)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.15
Record
30%
369-862 (1231)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.