Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 2.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$48.85

Smart Money Entry

39.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,300

Combined PnL+$59.81

Over3 traders

Total Value$241.93

Total Shares413

Combined PnL-$10.97

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 39.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$58.05	51% 2643-2567 (5210)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 56.7¢	$175.65	$132.41	+$5.89	52% 816-742 (1558)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$115.3	$130.58	+$15.28	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$79.39	$86.83	+$7.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.5¢	$35.9	$43.76	+$7.85
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 60.4¢	$64.95	$64.42	-$0.54	56% 4534-3502 (8036)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.4¢	$44.38	$42.61	-$1.77
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.6¢	$20.58	$21.81	+$1.23
38 38791873984189	Overavg 64¢	$164.66	$60.81	-$8.85	48% 2306-2514 (4820)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9<$100	Overavg 67.5¢	$56.71	$48.71	-$8	63% 25-15 (40)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$16.75	$17.59	+$0.84	33% 587-1187 (1774)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$9.39	$10.11	+$0.72	41% 590-850 (1440)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$4	$4.2	+$0.2	49% 1313-1344 (2657)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,467.41

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$58.05

Record

51%

2643-2567 (5210)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$175.65

Value

$132.41

PnL

+$5.89

Record

52%

816-742 (1558)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$115.3

Value

$130.58

PnL

+$15.28

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

Both legs:

Over$79.3953¢+$7.43

Under$35.934.5¢+$7.85

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$64.95

Value

$64.42

PnL

-$0.54

Record

56%

4534-3502 (8036)

Both legs:

Over$44.3860.4¢-$1.77

Under$20.5839.6¢+$1.23

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$164.66

Value

$60.81

PnL

-$8.85

Record

48%

2306-2514 (4820)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9<$100

Over

Invested

$56.71

Value

$48.71

PnL

-$8

Record

63%

25-15 (40)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.75

Value

$17.59

PnL

+$0.84

Record

33%

587-1187 (1774)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.39

Value

$10.11

PnL

+$0.72

Record

41%

590-850 (1440)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

1313-1344 (2657)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.