Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FK Austria Wien (43%) · FK Austria Wien at 59¢ · $536 held · ends Nov 12

Sport Lisboa e Benfica41¢FK Austria Wien59¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FK Austria Wien

Consensus Traders

FK Austria Wien 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$536.31

Combined PnL

$3.92

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 59¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFK Austria Wien at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FK Austria Wien

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sport Lisboa e Benfica41%

FK Austria Wien59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FK Austria Wien3 traders

Total Value$244

Total Shares410

Combined PnL-$13.88

Sport Lisboa e Benfica4 traders

Total Value$218.23

Total Shares497

Combined PnL+$17.81

FK Austria Wien — 43%Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on FK Austria Wien. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FK Austria Wien) and the top 1000 (6 on Sport Lisboa e Benfica) disagree here.

ctrFK Austria Wien 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedFK Austria Wien 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sport Lisboa e Benfica 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	FK Austria Wienavg 62¢	$186	$174.98	-$7.17	52% 761-712 (1473)
LuccaF7CTR	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 38¢	$115.75	$125.05	+$9.3	— 2-3 (5)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 62.5¢	$67.49	$74.08	+$6.59	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ FK Austria Wien leg	FK Austria Wienavg 62.5¢	$48.01	$45.72	-$2.29
└ Sport Lisboa e Benfica leg	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 28.2¢	$19.48	$28.36	+$8.88
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 65.4¢	$72.63	$66.05	-$6.58	52% 185-171 (356)
LO lovefieldCTR<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 34.6¢	$38.37	$45.51	+$7.14	17% 7-35 (42)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 38¢	$38.24	$39.7	+$1.46	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 41¢	$8.07	$7.97	-$0.1	33% 534-1108 (1642)
FE ferdinand2<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 62¢	$3.1	$2.97	-$0.13	49% 1228-1254 (2482)

VeryLucky888

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$186

Value

$174.98

PnL

-$7.17

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

LuccaF7CTR

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$115.75

Value

$125.05

PnL

+$9.3

Record

—

2-3 (5)

FlaznorpARB<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$67.49

Value

$74.08

PnL

+$6.59

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

FK Austria Wien$48.0162.5¢-$2.29

Sport Lisboa e Benfica$19.4828.2¢+$8.88

LeLynxMalynx<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$72.63

Value

$66.05

PnL

-$6.58

Record

52%

185-171 (356)

lovefieldCTR<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$38.37

Value

$45.51

PnL

+$7.14

Record

17%

7-35 (42)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$38.24

Value

$39.7

PnL

+$1.46

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

LimousinCTR<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$8.07

Value

$7.97

PnL

-$0.1

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

ferdinand2<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Research grade

NeutralFK Austria Wien at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

FK Austria Wien

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on FK Austria Wien. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FK Austria Wien) and the top 1000 (6 on Sport Lisboa e Benfica) disagree here.

ctrFK Austria Wien 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedFK Austria Wien 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sport Lisboa e Benfica 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FK Austria Wien wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.