Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-11?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 60¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$236.51

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 59.5¢

-4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,339

Combined PnL-$71.68

Yes2 traders

Total Value$932.65

Total Shares2,281

Combined PnL-$164.83

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
itoney17	Noavg 47¢	$863.68	$1.1K	+$221.51	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$1.1K	$923.53	-$158.52	35% 177-324 (501)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 76.9¢	$336.83	$258.36	-$78.47	52% 5324-4829 (10153)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 71.4¢	$307.03	$255.92	-$51.11	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 77.3¢	$242.82	$185.32	-$57.49	36% 521-909 (1430)
WH whosay	Noavg 62¢	$167.56	$183.78	+$16.22	— 12-6 (18)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 75.4¢	$233.96	$183.12	-$50.85	34% 199-384 (583)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$217.89	$160.22	-$57.67	50% 1393-1407 (2800)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.2¢	$187.29	$106.56	-$80.73
└ No leg	Noavg 38.8¢	$30.6	$53.66	+$23.06
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 75.9¢	$191.56	$148.83	-$42.73	31% 190-424 (614)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 68.3¢	$136.36	$134.34	-$2.02	32% 205-443 (648)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 72¢	$140.74	$111.72	-$22.19	38% 173-282 (455)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$80.95	$74.33	-$6.61	37% 190-317 (507)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 57.1¢	$47.24	$9.12	-$6.3	48% 223-237 (460)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.91	$3.97	+$2.07	30% 161-379 (540)

itoney17

Invested

$863.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$221.51

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,082.05

Value

$923.53

PnL

-$158.52

Record

35%

177-324 (501)

cigarettes

Invested

$336.83

Value

$258.36

PnL

-$78.47

Record

52%

5324-4829 (10153)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$307.03

Value

$255.92

PnL

-$51.11

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$242.82

Value

$185.32

PnL

-$57.49

Record

36%

521-909 (1430)

whosay

Invested

$167.56

Value

$183.78

PnL

+$16.22

Record

—

12-6 (18)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$233.96

Value

$183.12

PnL

-$50.85

Record

34%

199-384 (583)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$217.89

Value

$160.22

PnL

-$57.67

Record

50%

1393-1407 (2800)

Both legs:

Yes$187.2956.2¢-$80.73

No$30.638.8¢+$23.06

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$191.56

Value

$148.83

PnL

-$42.73

Record

31%

190-424 (614)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$136.36

Value

$134.34

PnL

-$2.02

Record

32%

205-443 (648)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$140.74

Value

$111.72

PnL

-$22.19

Record

38%

173-282 (455)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$80.95

Value

$74.33

PnL

-$6.61

Record

37%

190-317 (507)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.24

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$6.3

Record

48%

223-237 (460)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$2.07

Record

30%

161-379 (540)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.